Biochar Defended

10 09 2008

By Peter Read

Peter Read is a member of the Advisory Board of the International Biochar Initiative and an Hon Research Fellow with Massey University’s Centre for Energy Research. 

The International Biochar Initiative met this week in Newcastle (on Tyne) to advance the scientific understanding and policy role of this new boy on the block. And it’s under attack, even though it has a key role to play in addressing the threat of abrupt climatic change, such as a sudden, possibly several meter, rise in sea levels sometime this century.

But first, what’s biochar? It’s finely divided pyrolyzed biomass prepared for soil improvement – any sort of biomass such as wood chips, lawn mowings, sewage sludge, kitchen waste, animal husbandry effluents, corn stover and other crop wastes, etc. – that is heated with little or no oxygen (pyrolyzed) till volatile components are driven off (and available for processing to sustainable biofuels) with the remaining porous and carbon-rich material subsequently loaded with nutrients e.g. through exposure to compost or nutrient-rich boiler flue gases.

It is to be distinguished from charcoal, which is coarsely divided pyrolyzed wood, prepared for barbeque or other cooking fuel or for artist’s material (though otherwise useless charcoal dust from the charcoal making can be processed to biochar like any other finely divided pyrolyzed biomass).

So what’s it got to do with abrupt climate change? Distinguished Australian climate scientist Will Steffan, speaking to the Wellington Climate Conference last year said “One thing that really does worry a lot of us is the idea of a single aggregate tipping point for the earth as a whole – a shift to a state that may be much less amenable for human life”. Since then both theoretical climate modeling and climatic observation suggest that a tipping point may be near, with a point of no return, beyond which there is nothing we can do to get tipped back again, possibly following not long after.

The possibility of such a disaster is evident from studies of climate change over the last half million years which show many sudden temperature increases of several degrees within a few decades, linked to sea level changes of several meters. This link is thought to be due to the collapse of large land-based ice masses, such as, on a relatively small scale, the loss of the Larsen Ice Shelf a few years back, creating a vast ice island in the Southern Ocean.

So what are the policy implications of that? Like Noah, when he learned on high authority of a possible flood, we could get to be prepared, we could build an Ark. With the warning from Will Steffan, what form should our Ark take? An expert workshop I convened in Paris a few years back concluded that we need to be prepared to do better than reduce emissions, as is aimed for by the Kyoto Protocol. We need to be ready to actively take carbon out of the atmosphere and then put it somewhere safer.

Taking it out of the atmosphere means grow a lot of stuff, say trees – every ton of tree results from taking nearly two tons of carbon-dioxide from the atmosphere. Putting it somewhere safer means using the biomass of trees in ways that both keeps fossil fuel in the ground (Kyoto-fashion emissions reductions) and also prevents the Carbon that had been taken from the atmosphere getting back there – what can be called carbon removals.

Biochar does just that, providing it is based on sustainable commercial plantations, where harvested trees are replaced with new plantings that grow to maturity over the following years, or on biomass wastes co-produced with commercial food crops, resulting in synergy with food production, not competition. Done globally, and on a sufficiently large scale, carbon removals could restore carbon dioxide to pre-industrial levels by mid-century – far ahead of anything possible from Kyoto-style emissions reductions.

Interest in biochar sprang from archaeological studies of pre-Columbian civilizations in the Amazon basin. There it was found that large populations had been able to thrive, supporting themselves on the infertile yellow clay jungle soils by creating black earth (what is nowadays called terra preta in Brazil) through the accumulation of biochar residues from cooking fires.

Soil scientists involved in the Newcastle conference are investigating this fertility. It has been found that, with some soils and crops, productivity can be increased eight-fold. For the atmosphere that’s a treble whammy – fossil fuel left in the ground, stable biochar carbon in the soil, plus increased labile carbon bound up in the life-cycle of the greater weight of crops and their in-soil roots.

Devoted researchers are working in developing countries to realize these benefits for indigenous communities, passing the treble whammy on to farmers on the ground – providing the policy settings post 2012 deliver a value stream for the carbon benefit, one of the concerns at the IBI meeting. That can then be added to the value stream from the bio-oil by-product of the pyrolysis process, and the value stream from increased crop production. But not always: in some soils there’s no gain in crop productivity and in some there is even a reduction. So there is urgent need for research to find out where is best, which is what the IBI meeting is also about.

So why is this multi-win approach to the imminent threat to the survival of planet earth as we know it under attack?

Published by “eGov” it proclaims “International Biochar Conference uses False Claims to Promote Dangerous Technology”, not waiting for the meeting to take place or to proclaim anything. ‘Campaigners’ warn the IBI will be misleading governments with claims that biochar can curb climate change and improve soil fertility. This from one lady who is world renowned for swimming with dolphins off Northwest Australia and another deeply involved with the Pacific Indigenous People’s Environment Coalition – a group that will doubtless thank her sincerely if her actions see their homelands sink below the ocean waves.

Neither seems particularly well versed in soil science or knowledgeable about the carbon cycle. Almuth Ernsting adds that the IBI board members are well aware that science does not back their claims, citing Professor Lehmann’s confirmation that there are no long term experiments to support them. Now Lehmann is a good and honest scientist and would not shrink from the reality that interest in this new boy on the block is, unsurprisingly, recent. So it is to be expected that no long term human experimentation has yet yielded results regarding long term carbon sequestration. But Mr Ernsting cleverly twists his words by implying there is no evidence of improved fertility – in fact there is plenty, as he well knows and would report if he were honest. And there is more than one way to scientific knowledge – observing natures’ experiment with biochar left in the soil by pre-historic civilizations provides plenty of evidence that biochar yields very long term sequestration indeed.

Whatever can possess these presumably well meaning people? It seems they are driven by hard cases, and it is well known that hard cases make bad law. There is much to be learned from bad experience with early biofuel projects – early biochar projects don’t exist, since biochar work is all recent. This can ensure that land usurpation and tropical forest destruction have no place in the future pattern of land use improvements, based on investing in and caring for the soil so that it can deliver the food fibre and fuel that will be needed by 9 billion people a very few decades ahead. These people want to throw out the baby with the bathwater, bad law indeed when this baby can not only deliver the needed food fibre and fuel, but also grow up big, to save us from climatic catastrophe.





Unprovoked Propaganda Campaign Against Biochar Unhelpful and Dishonest

9 09 2008

By Ryan Hottle

Biochar may be the single greatest solution humanity has to mitigate and adapt to the threat of global climate change.  Through the process of creating biochar (called pyrolysis) it is possible to simultaneously produce clean energy, vastly improve soils, and capture significant quantities of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

The source of the material used for making biochar can be a wide variety of feedstocks including waste agricultural products (e.g. nut shells and rice hulls), urban lawn waste (e.g. leaves and tree trimmings), poultry manure, fast growing trees (e.g. poplars and willows), sewage sludge, saw dust, and grass-based biomass (e.g. switchgrass.)

Biochar is also widely recognized as providing a means of reducing deforestation by offering alternatives to slash-and-burn agriculture. Many proponents of biochar hope it will increase economic well-being and sustainability of local indigenous communities. The appropriate use of the technology could benefit third-world countries as a highly efficient method of cooking and using local biomass resources.

An example of how pyrolysis applications could be used to benefit third-world communities using appropriate scale for home cooking and heating. Image of Robert Flanagan's biochar cookstove.

Community-scale biochar power generation facilities could work in tandem with solar and wind based renewable energy systems to produce energy while the sun is not shining or the wind is not blowing. Using Combined Heat and Power (CHP) systems for biochar production may be among the most sustainable methods by which we can heat and power our homes in the future.

Clearly the potential benefits of biochar are significant.

A somewhat strange attack-piece circulated by a few small organizations, however, would make you think otherwise. An article entitled International Biochar Conference Uses False Claims to Promote Dangerous Technology in the name of Climate Change Mitigation,” has recently begun circulating the internet in response to the International Biochar Initiative’s second annual meeting in Newcastle, United Kingdom.

In the article they claim that Biochar is a “scheme for profiteering off of the crisis of climate change,” and that “vast areas of land would have to be turned over to monoculture plantations to produce enough biomass.” They claim that biochar production “will accelerate global warming,” and that “the IBI board members are well aware that science does not back their claims.”

Unfortunately, this belligerent attack on the International Biochar Initiative and on biochar, in general, is unfortunate, unhelpful, and extremely dishonest.

Myth 1: Biochar requires that we plant monoculture plantations

As described at the beginning of this article, biochar can be derived from a large variety of feedstocks and need not require monoculture plantations. Indeed, biochar’s powerful soil improvement characteristics may be a critical component to reforestation efforts as well as a significant element of sustainable agricultural practices, particularly in the tropics.

Myth 2: Biochar will accelerate global climate change

Dr. James Hansen, director of NASA’s Goddard Institute of Space Studies, has recently pointed to biochar (and the work of Dr. Johannes Lehmann) as being potentially the most critical component to carbon sequestration and climate mitigation in his most recent paper “Where Should Humanity Aim?

Myth 3: There is no scientific basis for biochar

A significant amount of research has been conducted on biochar by universities, institutions, and private companies across the world and on practically every continent. More research remains to be done, as biochar is a novel suggestion in light of the unprecedented threats of global climate change and energy scarcity. The data suggest a clear link between biochar and improved soil fertility, clean energy production, and significant carbon sequestration.

I think it unfortunate that this campaign has been launched by a group of “environmental organizations.” While their concerns over continued deforestation and indigenous communities are legitimate, their unsubstantiated hack job is not.

Many of the people working behind the scenes to promote biochar as a sustainable solution to climate change are concerned about the very same issues. I invite those who are responsible for writing and circulating the article to open a dialog with the biochar community instead of releasing dubious press releases. A good place to start would be on the Biochar Listserve available at: http://terrapreta.bioenergylists.org.





Cap-and-Trade vs. Carbon Tax: Formulating an Effective Carbon Accounting System

8 09 2008

By Ryan Hottle

The world is in desperate need for a greenhouse gas accounting and reduction system that will prevent us from crossing important threshold levels of atmospheric carbon. Actually, we’ve probably already crossed this level, and therefore will need powerful carbon sequestration and storage methods too.

If we think creatively about the solution, we may actual be able to accomplish both of these goals—emissions reductions and carbon sequestration—simultaneously.

One model for reducing global carbon emissions. (From Global Commons Institute www.GCI.org)

The most critical thing that we get right is putting a price on carbon that reflects its current and future costs for human society. Presently there is no incentive for an emitter of carbon dioxide, whether it be a family, commercial facility, coal fire power plant, or industrial plant, to conserve energy and lower emissions.

But how exactly do we do this? The two most popular methods being proposed are Cap-and-Trade and a Carbon Tax. Many contrasts have been drawn between the two approaches, but, in many respects, the systems are not altogether dissimilar (and they can in theory used in tandem).

Cap-and-Trade—the approach most popular among politicians—would put a quantitative limit on annual carbon emissions by auctioning permits that power plants and other industries would have to purchase in order to burn fossil fuels, whereas, a Carbon Tax—the approach most popular among economists—would discourage emissions reductions by increasing the cost of doing so.

Both effectively put a price on carbon emissions. Both require monitoring and administrative infrastructure. Both are open to political-corporate manipulation. The most often cited benefits and drawbacks of each system can be surmised as follows:

 

BENEFITS AND DRAWBACKS OF CARBON TAX

-A Carbon Tax will provide greater efficiency and transparency than a Cap-and-Trade system. It will be easier to set up and easier manage because it utilizes the existing tax structure.

-A Carbon Tax will offer greater predictability in prices which is beneficial to businesses and industries investing in low-carbon options such as energy conservation and efficiency measures and replacement of fossil fuel derived energy with renewables.

-Like the Cap-and-Trade system, a Carbon Tax can be structured such that 100 percent of the money is returned directly to the people who are taxed.

-A Carbon Tax discourages carbon emissions but cannot limit them to quantifiable annual levels.

-A Carbon Tax is based almost exclusively around the nation-state level. It is not scalable (e.g. it cannot be easily adopted by a local municipality which then influences a state toward adoption) and it appears that it will be difficult to encourage universal adoption even if an influential country such as the United States were to implement it, due to the inherent differences of individual country’s taxation systems.

Distribution of tax on different economic levels, demonstrating that the rich will pay more since they general use more energy and, therefore, emit more CO2. Is this enough, however, to protect the poor? (From the Carbon Tax Center.)

-Despite claims that the wealthy will invariably pay a greater portion of the Carbon Tax, there is no real safety net to protect low-income and working class people from rising energy prices unless some portion of the money were to be allocated specifically for low-income assistance programs such as the HUD’s Weatherization Programs.

-Many people (especially those in the U.S.) are adverse to anything resembling, associated with, or connected to a tax. The very name and identity of the approach could also be its largest obstacle for implementation.


BENEFITS AND DRAWBACKS OF CAP-AND-TRADE

-Emissions can be directly controlled by placing a restriction on the amount of annual carbon emissions. If all emissions are accounted for, this allows us to use the best scientific research possible in order to establish what annual emissions should be.

-Like a carbon tax, the Cap-and-Trade can be structured to redistribute the collected funds equally to the general public.

-The Cap-and-Trade has been at least partly proven in concept through the successful cap-and-trade system utilized in the Clean Air Act of 1990.

-A Cap-and-Trade system is more subject to political and corporate manipulation, could require a much larger administration to manage it.

-Cap-and-Trade could take significantly longer to design, get legislative approval and to implement.

-A Cap-and-Trade system may lead to price volatility on energy markets which would create difficulties for companies investing in renewable energy and other low-carbon solutions.

Again, it is important to emphasize that the two systems are more similar than the contrasts suggest.

Cap-and-Share (www.capandshare.org) is proposing a unique model of distributing permits directly to the citizenry that may get rid of much of the complexity and bureaucracy of former Cap-and-Trade based systems. They also claim their model is flexible, scalable, and not prone to corruption. If this is indeed the case, they would have gotten rid of many of the purported drawbacks of a Cap-based system.

Diagram of the Cap-and-Share Model. (From www.CapandShare.org)

Meanwhile, The Carbon Tax Center (www.carbontaxcenter.org) has also put forth some very convincing arguments as to why a carbon tax may be the best approach and how it could be made to work in an extremely economical and equitable manner.

Recently, there has been widespread excitement over the proposal to return the generated funds from either the Cap or the Tax directly back to the people. James Hansen has suggested this in his paper “Carbon Tax and 100 Percent Dividend,” as has Peter Barnes in his newly released book “Climate Solutions.

Directly depositing money into the bank accounts of each individual citizen on a monthly basis, as Hansen has suggested, would surely be a fairly convincing way to convince voters that the system is transparent, fair, and non-regressive.

The most critical thing is not which system we ultimately choose to go with, but that we make the system as transparent, robust, and equitable as possible. And, of course, that we put it into place as soon as possible—we simply do not have much time left to start initiating these reductions in emissions.

In future postings, I hope to explore some unique methods by which we can accomplish several other important measures simultaneously, including: 1) encourage global adoption of a carbon accounting system, 2) promote population stabilization, 3) establish a global fund to assist in climate mitigation and adaptation (particularly for the poorest people in the world), and 4) research, design, and demonstration of CCS technologies as well as Carbon Negative Energy technologies from pyrolysis.

We have but one beautiful planet to protect and but precious little time to do it in. What we choose to do–or not to do–in the next five to ten years will make all the difference.  We must be prepared to work hard and work together–that’s the only way we’re going to win!





Study Finds North American Soil Carbon Levels Much Higher Than Previously Thought

6 09 2008

By Ryan Hottle

Feedback cycles in Earth’s climatic system are one of the most critical and uncertain factors influencing global climate change. Recent research suggests these feedbacks are overwhelmingly positive. That is to say, as the world’s atmosphere increases in temperature due to emissions of anthropogenic greenhouse gases (e.g. carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, ozone, and CFCs) the likelihood is for an amplification of the warming effect.

And this is what has many climatologists worried about irreversible “run-away” warming effects that, once they’re started, can’t be stopped.

Among one of the most important and potentially devastating feedbacks is the release of carbon in the form of methane from Arctic soils. A recent study published in the British scientific journal Nature suggests that soil organic carbon (SOC) levels are much higher than previously estimated.

Dr. Chein-Lu Ping and his team have found that soils in the North American Arctic region contain around 34.8 kilograms of carbon per meter instead of the previously assumed levels of 20-29 kilograms of carbon per square meter. The previous studies did not take into account deeper soil layers and relied upon a very limited sampling. In their paper, “High stocks of soil organic carbon in the North American Arctic region,” Ping et al write:

We estimate the North American Arctic SOC pool size to be 98.2 Gt [Gigatons]…The only other comparable published estimate found in the literature is considerably lower, at 43 Gt SOC for the Canadian treeless Arctic.”

This is important, very important.

The tundra is estimated to be a carbon sink of some 1,000 billion metric tons of carbon (though this estimate may change based on this research and other recent findings that carbon levels in the arctic are probably higher than previously assumed.) To put this into perspective, consider the fact that we are presently emitting on the order of 28 billion metric tons of CO2 per year.

Location of Permafrost in Northern Hemisphere. (From NSIDC.)

 

If just a small percentage of this carbon were to start entering the atmosphere in the form of methane (an extremely potent greenhouse gas —approximately 23 times the forcing effect of carbon dioxide—although shorter-lived CO2), the potential for catastrophic global climate change is only that much more likely.

Jamais Cascio (of www.worldchanging.com) has suggested a novel (albeit entirely theoretical) method for mitigating this threat. Essentially, we could genetically engineer a “methanotropic” bacteria that literally eats methane in order to potent greenhouse gases:

It appears to me that what will be the most effective means of mitigating and remediating the gargantuan methane excursion from the Siberian permafrost melt would be using genetically-modified forms of methanotrophic bacteria, with greater oxidation capacity and the Archaea-derived resistance to extreme cold (these may well go hand-in-hand, as one way that deep sea methanotrophs survive the icy depths is through internal energy production from methane consumption). Given the size of the region, we’ll need lots of them, but that’s another advantage of biology over straight chemistry: the methanotrophs would be reproducing themselves.”

(See “Terraforming Earth 4: The Question of Methane.”)

I certainly don’t have the qualifications to speak on the likelihood of such a proposal to actually work. I will say that serious moral and ethical questions about the role and aptitude of humanity arise for me as we consider an approach that would unleash a genetically-modified organism to counter global climate change. Yet, I can also appreciate the concern and creativity to which Cascio addresses this important question. (I will be addressing the role of such “geo-engineering” projects in an upcoming blog.)

I think the overwhelming evidence suggests that we’re going to be in “a world of hurt” if we let the Earth’s systems get to the point of scrambling to sequester gigantic releases of methane from melting permafrost. Thus, our best option, is to (1) reduce emissions as fast as possible, and (2) sequester as much energy as possible from the atmosphere using Carbon Negative Energy technologies.

What I am advocating is that we reduce emissions 100 percent by 2025 and shoot for atmospheric carbon levels of 280 ppm by 2050 in order to be certain of avoiding catastrophic climate change.

If we take the philosophy that every problem is a solution in disguise, this study may open our eyes to the potential solution and I think it is this: There is a phenomenal opportunity—as carbon levels in arctic soils suggest—to store carbon in the soil.

In less than a couple days, the second annual conference on “Biochar” will be hosted by the International Biochar Initiative (IBI) in Newcastle, United Kingdom.

The conference will explore the extremely promising potential of capturing carbon from the atmosphere while producing clean, renewable energy from sustainably harvested biomass and creating a powerful soil amendment. Three incredibly important solutions in a single process—hard to ask for a more.

More information on the conference and on biochar can be found on the IBI’s website: www.biochar-international.org. The solutions are out there. How fast and effectively we implement them is the question of that remains to be answered.

We have but one beautiful planet to protect and but precious little time to do it in. What we choose to do—or not to do—in the next five to ten years will make all the difference. Be prepared to work hard and work together—that’s the only way we’re going to win!





Plan C 5.0: Community Solutions to Climate Change and Peak Oil

2 09 2008

By RYAN HOTTLE

Relocalization—the process of creating sustainable and largely self-reliant communities that are all at once beautiful, prosperous, and meaningful places to live—is perhaps the single greatest step we can take to “decarbonize” our lives and thereby prepare for climate change and peak oil simultaneously.

It’s a shame and a testament to our highly compartmentalized 21st century mindset that many within the “climate change community” and the larger “sustainability community” don’t know about peak oil and the potentially damning effects it could have on our social and economic systems. For example, I take courses from highly, highly educated climate scientists who can speak for hours on, for example, the intricacies of cloud formation as it relates to sulfate particles in the atmosphere and how they are expected to change with a warming atmosphere. But ask them about “peak oil?” They don’t know what it is. Never heard of it.

You might be able to claim ignorance, but you can’t say there wasn’t anybody warning you about it or describing the solutions either. Community Solutions (www.communitysolution.org), a vibrant non-profit organization out of Yellow Springs, Ohio, has been ringing the clarion call for solutions to climate change and peak oil for over half a decade now and are preparing to host their 5
th annual conference on “Plan C: Individual Survival Strategies for the Energy Crisis.” (Conference website available here: www.plancconference.info.)

To say that the list of speakers they have lined up are good would be a gross understatement—it would be worthy to travel to hear any one of the seven amazing visionaries they have scheduled.

Among them John Michael Greer (who has recently been called “the greatest peak oil historian in the English language), Richard Heinberg (easily the most influential and prolific writer on peak oil ), Peter Bane (probably one of the top Permaculture practitioners and teachers in the world, co-editor of Permaculture Activist [www.permacultureactivist.net], and also my PC design course teacher;) and—let us not forget—Megan Quinn Bachman (Outreach director of Community Solutions—young, passionate, articulate, and a global leader—what more could you ask for?!)

The conference is scheduled to take place October 31st-November 2nd in Rochester, Michigan. In order to receive Early Registration prices you have to sign up before September 30th. The cost for the conference is a steal, in my opinion, with extremely low costs . (I should note that I am not affiliated whatsoever with the conference—I am merely a strong supporter of the great work and leadership Community Solutions has been providing over the years.)

It is function of our modernistic society that we believe that all of our problems—energy, climate, and environment—are capable of being solved with techno-fixes. Unfortunately, we may simply be out of time and energy resources to redesign our entire transportation and energy infrastructure. It’s a hard truth that many don’t want to face, but it may well be true.

 

permaculture activist, wizard, and friend.
Peter Bane: Permaculture wizard, activist, and friend!

Personally, I believe we should be actively working to research and develop renewable energy sources (particularly Carbon Negative Energy with biochar production in a process called pyrolysis in addition to wind and solar energy technologies), but the very first place to work on, the lowest-hanging fruit where we can save the most money and energy and where we can simultaneously prepare for peak oil and mitigate the threat of climate change is by relocalizing our communities; weatherizing and retrofitting our buildings; creating local sustainable food systems; generating healthy local economies; and utilizing the inherent wisdom of Permaculture design principles.
We have but one beautiful planet to protect and but precious little time to do it in. What we choose to do—or not to do—in the next five to ten years will make all the difference. Be prepared to work hard and work together—that’s the only way we’re going to win!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 





Reflections on “An Inconvenient Truth”

1 09 2008

By Dr. Larry Kinney

[EDITOR'S NOTE: Larry Kinney is easily one among  a handful of the world's top leading experts on building science, energy conservation and efficiency.  Larry is presently conducting research and development of several unique and significatly important building systems including advanced daylighting mechanisms and exterior insulating shutters.  The insulating shutters that Larry is developing, in my opinion, are probably going to be a revolutionary advancement in building performance.  In addtion to information about his company, Larry has a superb primer on energy auditing on his website: www.SynertechSystemsCorp.com.  Beyond his amazing breadth and depth of knowledge, Larry is also an inspiring teacher and amazing friend.  I owe no small part of the direction I am headed to his influence.  -RH]

 

As film critic, Roger Ebert, urged—for the first time in his 37-year career—“Go see this movie.” It’s a powerful message powerfully delivered by a man who should have been President of our fragile republic. However, I was disappointed that the message was virtually all about global warming.

When I became impassioned about energy and environmental matters 35 years ago, “global warming” was not part of public parlance. Nonetheless, the authors of The Limits to Growth and such visionaries as Fritz Schumacher (author of Small is Beautiful: Economics as if People Mattered) and the University of Colorado’s own tireless Professor of Physics, Al Bartlett, had already sounded a clarion call about the ravages of exponential growth in the consumption of finite resources and runaway increases in population. This caused some of us to devote our lives to figuring out how to minimize the increasingly wasteful use of fossil fuels.

A quad is a very large unit of energy, a million billion British thermal units. A million Btu is roughly the energy equivalent of a person year of labor, so a quad is a billion of those. In 1970, when I first came to grips with exponential growth, the US had used an amount of energy in the previous 18 years that equaled the amount of energy our nation had used over its entire prior history. In 1970, the world used 207 quads.

This year, the world will consume over 400 quads and the US alone—with less than 5 percent of the world’s population—will use over 100 quads, about a quarter of the world’s total. The US Department of Energy predicts that in 2020, the world will use well over 600 quads—600 billion person-years of labor energy equivalent—a tripling in 50 years.

US Energy Use in 2002 (97 Quads)

 

Presently, the phenomenon of global warming is quite clear to all but the lunatic fringe, and its effects are admirably documented in Al Gore’s impressive slide show. Most reputable scientists also acknowledge the fact that oil production peaked in this country around 1971, and many believe that world oil production has also peaked. We can view both of these developments as predictable consequences of the phenomenon of unchecked growth in the use of non-renewable energy. However, it is possible to believe in any of these three powerful forces independently of the others and reach the same conclusion—we are in deep trouble and must change our wasteful ways now.

Confronted with the enormity of these global phenomena—effectively dramatized by the breaking off of massive portions of polar ice caps—it is only natural to wring our hands in despair and perhaps even kneel in prayer. I hope we will quickly replace hand wringing with the rolling up of sleeves. There’s lots of important work to be done. We must launch a vigorous war on waste and integrate it with shifting to renewable resources. In addition, concerted global efforts in education are necessary to reverse population growth before calamitous events accomplish this end in tragic ways.

In short, in the memorable words of An Inconvenient Truth, let our prayers be accompanied by the movement of feet.

 





Extreme Carbon Negativity: 280 ppm by 2050

11 08 2008

One could argue that climate change awareness has thus far progressed through four distinct phases. A mere twenty years climate change was the obscure work of academics. Phase one. Phase two was the fiery argument over the merits and uncertainty of the science by a fairly small crowd of researchers (and industry-funded naysayers)–most of the people, however, remained unattached and undecided as far as the debate went. As of two or three years ago–roughly corresponding with Al Gore’s release of “An Inconvenient Truth”–we entered a new level of widespread public recognition. That was phase three. Now we seem to be entering a fourth phase: serious solutions.

The past several months have given witness to an incredible burgeoning of studies, action plans, and public announcements which commonly suggest the gravity of the situation we are in is a hell of a lot worse than we originally imagined. The upshot of this conclusion is that the proposed solutions to climate change are going to have to be of a much higher caliber than those of the past have been. No longer are we talking about the business-as-usual plans to reduce emissions levels 50% by 2050 or to cap CO2 levels at 650 parts per million. We need serious, comprehensive, highly-effective, and timely strategies to combat climate change. The science has set the bar far higher and now the leaders of the climate movement are rising to the challenge:

· Dr. James Hansen of NASA and his fellow colleagues have released a groundbreaking paper arguing that the safe upper limit of CO2 in the atmosphere is 310 to 350 parts per million (ppm) while offering a compelling plan to deal with the threat.

 

 

· Lester Brown and The Earth Policy Institute have just released an ambitious plan to reduce global emissions levels 80% by 2020.

 

 

· Al Gore and “The We Campaign have just launched a bold plan to generate 100% of U.S. energy from clean, carbon-free sources by 2020.

 

 

· Bill McKibben and fellow activists of the “Step It Up Campaign” have created a new platform for advocating serious carbon reductions to 350 ppm of CO2 which is, appropriately enough, called 350.org.

 

 

· Dr. Johannes Lehmann and colleagues from around the world will be gathering this September at the International Biochar Initiative to discuss the powerful new strategy to reverse climate change: carbon-negative energy.

 

 

· Dr. Rajendra Pachauri, president of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) has recently revealed his belief that humanity has a mere 7 years to put into action a robust plan to combat climate change.

 

The authority and magnitude of these voices cannot be underestimated. After a hundred years of massive exploitation of the world’s resources, population growth and the pumping of carbon reserves into the atmosphere, scientists are now realizing that (a) global climate change is quite easily the greatest threat that has ever faced humanity, and (b) that it is happening much more rapidly than they originally thought. Suffice to say, we’ve pissed Mother Nature off royally.

Decreasing CO2: From Hansen et al. “Where Should Humanity Aim?”

 

Many within the climate change community are calling for reductions down to 350 parts per million according to Hansen’s aforementioned study. Personally (without being a climatologist), I believe we should shoot for 100% emissions reductions by 2025 and to lower atmospheric CO2 levels a full 30% by 2050 back to pre-industrial levels of 280 ppm.

Lowering atmospheric carbon dioxide levels down to 280 ppm is the sensible thing to do because 280 ppm represents the level of CO2 in the atmosphere that the Earth system has been self-regulating at for the past 10,000 years. 280 ppm also corresponds to the climatic system under which all of our agricultural systems and species have evolved under. It should be noted that the 310 to 350 ppm of atmospheric CO2 that Hansen is suggesting we shoot for is the safe upper-limit of atmospheric carbon–not the ideal atmospheric carbon level. In terms of the precautionary principle, adding a 10 to 20% buffer to Hansen and McKibben’s target of 350 ppm makes sense because being off by even a little bit could have catastrophic consequences.

So how is it that we get to this target of 280 ppm, particularly when we are adding 2 ppm of CO2 to the atmosphere each year? The difficulty to describing how exactly we transform a society, infrastructure, and worldview from one that is inherently unsustainable to one that will be prepared to weather the storms of climate change, peak oil, food and water scarcity, and the multitude of other threats that will be pounding us from all sides is that we need far-reaching, evolutionary change at all levels simultaneously.

Pointing to renewable energy production and green jobs as a solution to our current dilemma–while popular among many organizations and individuals within the climate change community–is a drastic and potentially disastrous oversimplification of the situation in which we find ourselves. Alex Steffen, of www.Worldchanging.com, has rightly accurately critiqued Gore’s speech writing that:

The problem with Gore’s speech is its single-answer clarity, it’s attempt to boil down our problems into their most important part. Renewables may or may not be “the lynchpin” of a sustainable society, but they are clearly far from the only answer.

“We need to make a big, massive, one-off investment to transform our energy infrastructure,” Gore told a reporter. That’s true.
But it’s only part of the truth: that we need a series of parallel “big, massive, one-off investments.” The problems we face will not be solved with one big effort, even a big effort on the scale of the lunar landings or the War on Poverty. The problems we face will only be solved by a wholesale transformation of many interlocking systems at once — a transformation that aims to overcome many problems at once.
Do we need wind farms and solar arrays? Yes! But we also need to redesign our cities, so that we’re able to grow green, dense, walkable communities that let us change our transportation systems, redefine our architectural practices and recreate our infrastructure.
We need revolutions in farming, fishing and forestry, one that makes sure that the food we eat, the clothes we wear and the materials we use are healthy and sustainable — and we need better stewardship of the public lands and waters we all rely on.
We need a new relationship to water, water supplies and water consumption.
We need transformed product designs, new industrial processes, green metals systems, green chemistry and zero waste solutions to the garbage we create.
We need a massive wave of innovation, right now, in every single part of America’s material civilization.”
Steffen is right. What is really need is comprehensive model for solving climate change that incorporates a diversity of interconnected solutions that work in synergy with one another. We need a bold reshaping of lifestyles and thought-patterns. We desperately need a plan that can be rapidly implemented that will suck CO2 out of the atmosphere as fast as we possibly can. We need a roadmap to lead us from collision course we are headed on into a new and better world of environmental sustainability and social equity.
 
To the groundswell of bold thinking around solutions to climate change I would like to dedicate the very first blog posting at our new website (www.GlobalClimateSolutions.org) to the unveiling of the “Earth Rebirth Model” for Solving Climate Change. The Earth Rebirth Model (ERM) proposes a systems approach based on permaculture principles to mitigating and adapting to climate change as well as dealing with the interconnected threats of peak oil, food and water scarcity, economic depression, and ecological destruction.

As the name suggests, the ultimate goal of ERM is to simultaneously solve the climate change crisis while creating a more sustainable, equitable, beautiful, and, ultimately, more meaningful planet for present and future generations to come.

Here let me briefly introduce the reader to ERM by considering four critical aspects of the model. Though these four pieces of the solution certainly are not all the solutions ERM considers, these are four solutions which I believe are absolutely critical to getting right right away:

First, is placing a price on carbon. Without accurately applying the true cost of releasing CO2 into the atmosphere, business-as-usual will continue unabated, leading us down the path of inevitable destruction. In his book, “Climate Solutions: A Citizen’s Guide,” Peter Barnes presents a sensible and equitable model for applying a Cap-and-Trade scheme. Likewise, James Hansen has presented a very similar model albeit using a Carbon Tax-and-Dividend scheme: “Carbon Tax and 100% Dividend –No Alligator Shoes!”

Both of these systems operate on a national level by placing an increasing cost on carbon that is than equally redistributed to the citizenry. While both of these are good models, I am personally drawn to the global “Contraction and Convergence” model or the updated Cap and Share model but with unique built-in mechanisms to decrease global population (voluntarily, of course), increase social equity across the planet, provide a “Global Climate Emergency Fund,” and to promote rapid development of carbon negative energy technologies by paying people to sequester carbon. Perhaps most importantly, any scheme that we adapt will have to have aggressive political teeth that give countries a solemn choice between tasty carrots or extremely painful sticks in order to ensure global compliance. (More on the details on this scheme in upcoming blog.)

The second is producing clean, renewable energy with net-zero or net-negative CO2 emissions. Upon Gore’s proclamation that we reduce emissions 100% by 2020, Jerome a Parisof the Daily Kos performed some useful napkin-level sketches on whether this would be possible simply with our available wind generating capacity in the United States. What he found was that 100% carbon free energy by 2020 may not be possible but 50-90% would be.

What neither Jerome a Paris, Al Gore, Lester Brown, Bill McKibben nor many other of the “climate all-stars” seem to be aware of, however, is our ability to couple and modulate intermittent wind and solar capacity with Combined Heat and Power (CHP) Pyrolysis Systems that can produce carbon-negative energy from agricultural debris and other biomass waste streams. In addition to sequestering carbon and producing energy the byproduct of pyrolysis is a powerful soil amendment known as “biochar” which can improve water retention in soil, provide homes to microorganisms, reduce need for nitrogen fertilizers by decreasing nutrient leaching, decrease the “dead zone” phenomenon, and improve overall soil health.

Dr. Johannes Lehmann, professor of Soil Science at Cornell University, has suggested that we could be sequestering upwards of 5.5 to 9.5 Petra grams (Pg) of carbon per year by 2100. To put this in perspective, consider that we are presently emitting 5.4 Pg of carbon per year from fossil fuels.  Thus, we can clearly intuit that the potential of carbon negative energy (and carbon negative farming practices) is absolutely stupendous even if it were only 1/10 this effective. Questions remain over whether the addition of charcoal to soils will increase microbial activity, thereby, speeding decomposition of soil organic matter. Clearly more research is needed, but this should not be an excuse to stall the implementation of widespread trials within the very near-short term. Governments everywhere should be investing as much money as possible into biochar, carbon-negative energy.

If we find it is as promising as current research suggests, we may choose to simply mandate that the coal companies either capture and store 100 percent of their carbon emissions by 2025 or switch their generating capacity to pyrolysis based systems. It’s that simple: If you’re not carbon neutral or carbon negative by 2025, you’re out of work. Period.

Diagram of Carbon Negative Energy Process (right) vis-a-vis Normal Carbon Cycling (left)

Third is “Relocalizing” our communities and economies. The visionary leaders who have been promoting and actively working to address the largely-unrecognized and misunderstood threat of global peak oil and gas production have been promoting relocalization for a number of years. Unfortunately the overwhelming majority of people don’t understand peak oil, the media isn’t informing them about it, and practically all the leaders and politicians either don’t have the intelligence or backbone to talk about the situation.

Relocalizationis the process of creating more sustainable and self-reliant communities by growing food, producing essential goods, and deriving a sustainable and fulfilling life locally. It is the opposite of the fossil-fuel economy and provides a compelling model for “decarbonizing” our energy infrastructure, agricultural production systems, economies, and lifestyles. See the work of Richard Heinberg, Julian Darley, The Post Carbon Institute, and The Relocalization Network.

Fourth is integration. In Permaculture one of the chief principles is to “Never just do one thing.” Another is to “Utilize the yields of each element to meet the needs of other elements in the system.” In other words, our solutions cannot exist by themselves—we must design solutions that integrate together in a synergistic fashion.

Let’s look at prevention of catastrophic forest fires as a case-in-point.As temperatures rise and hardiness zones continue their upward creep, there is likely to be significant negative effects on many species and ecosystems. Some species and ecosystems will be faced with widespread die-off, collapse, and extinction. As the following maps from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s “Forestry Climate Change Atlas” (http://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas/) indicate, we are going to see potentially drastic increases in average annual temperatures within the next several decades. The first image is of current mean temperatures. The second of a low-impact scenario of climate change, while the third is the high-impact scenario in 2100.

Present Average Annual Temperatures

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Low-Impact Average Annual Temperatures

High-Impact Average Annual Temperatures

One of the prone ecosystems in my area of the country is the Maple-Beech-Birch forest types in U.S. Northeast. As they die-off there will be an enormous accumulation of biomass that could potentially provide fodder for massive fires. In order to prevent these fires, it would behoove us to reduce the quantity of biomass on forest floors. This presents the opportunity for turning a portion of the biomass into energy and biochar through pyrolysis. We are faced with a single problem. We approach it with creativity and science and we create a positive solution to the problem. But we don’t stop there…

The biochar could then be added to soils to enhance soil productivity. “Food Forest” systems that produce fruit, nut, berry, mushroom and other perennial crops could be planted in the (See Dave Jacke’s work at www.EdibleForestGardens.com); woodland coppicing management systems; and low-input, high-diversity polyculture biomass production systems (See David Tillman’s article “Carbon-Negative Biofuels from Low-Input High-Diversity Grassland Biomass”) are being planted.

The sustainably managed forest ecosystems could provide the raw material to rebuild significant portions of our housing infrastructure to become passive solar buildings (locking up carbon in the process.) The Forest Gardens would provide fruits, nuts, berries, mushrooms and other perennial crops for local consumption. The coppicedwoodland area could provide material for home heat and small-to-medium scale pyrolysis plants as well as for locally manufactured tools. The grassland biomass would provide us with additional sources of energy for either cellulosic ethanol production or pyrolysis. Intelligent and sustainable management of wilderness could involve opening up “South-to-North Wilderness Corridors” enable migration paths for species on the run from rising temperatures.

This is but one example of how a comprehensive and synergistic model would work in a single place, though the principles can be applied universally. Instead of trying to apply the common, isolated solution to the problem, we find that we can accomplish a multitude of important processes simultaneously with an intelligent, integrated approach.

280 ppm by 2050 is indeed possible, though I would argue that the comprehensive and integrated approach that The Earth Rebirth Model suggests is going to be the essential to reduce atmospheric levels down to sustainable levels fast enough.

The first phase of climate obscurity passed 20 years ago with Hansen in front of the U.S. Congress. The second phase of climate debatehas been all but won by the climatologists–the climate skeptics, few in number and lacking in any real credibility, are licking their wounds over in the corner and posting dubious propaganda on YouTube. The third phase of climate recognition is quickly moving to the fourth phase of real climate solutions. This phase will be vital to how well and how quickly we move to the fifth phase: climate action.

The fate of this precious planet and the future of our children and grandchildren hangs in the precipitously in the balance. What we choose to do–or not to do–in the next five to ten years will make all the difference. Be prepared to work hard together–that’s the only way we’re going to win.